Kuki Russia yateye Ukraine kandi Putin ni iki yifuza?

Mu kirere, ku butaka, no mu mazi, Uburusiya bwagabye ibitero simusiga kuri Ukrainne, igihugu cy’abaturage miliyoni 44. Mu mezi ashize Perezida Vladimir Putin yakomeje guhakana ko agamije gutera umuturanyi, nyuma arenga ku masezerano y’amahoro, yohereza ingabo ze ku mipaka ya Ukraine mu majyaruguru, iburasirazuba, n’amajyepfo.

Mu gihe imibare y’abapfuye iri kuzamuka, ubu arashinjwa kubangamira amahoro mu Burayi kandi ibishobora gukurikira birashyira mu kaga umutekano wose w’uwo mugabane.

Ni hehe ingabo z’Uburusiya zateye kandi kuki?

Ibibuga by’indege, ibiro n’ibirindiro bya gisirikare niho harashweho mbere mu mijyi ikomakomeye muri Ukraine, harimo n’ikibuga cy’indege mpuzamahanga cya Boryspil i Kyiv.

Nyuma ibifaru n’abasirikare bahise bisuka muri Ukraine mu majyaruguru ashyira iburasirazuba, hafi ya Kharkiv, umujyi utuwe n’abantu hafi miliyoni 1.4; iburasirazuba hafi ya Luhansk, guturuka mu gihugu gituranyi cya Bielorussie mu majyaruguru, hamwe no guturuka kuri Crimea mu majyepfo.

Ingabo z’Uburusiya zafashe ikibuga cy’indege cya gisirikare kiri hanze gato ya Kyiv kandi zagejeje indege mu mijyi minini iri ku byambu ya Odesa na Mariupol.

Umwanya muto mbere y’uko ibi bitero bitangira kuwa kane, Putin yagiye kuri televiziyo atangaza ko Uburusiya “budashobora gutekana, gutera imbere, no kubaho” kubera icyo yise ikibazo gihoraho cya Ukraine y’ibi bihe.

Impamvu nyinshi yatanze zari ibinyoma cyangwa zirimo kuyobya. Yavuze ko intego ye ari ukurengera abaturage bahohoterwa kandi bashobora gukorerwa jenoside hamwe no “kwambura intwaro no gukura imikorere y’aba-Nazi” muri Ukraine.

Nta jenoside iri muri Ukraine – ni igihugu kirimo demokarasi kiyoborwa n’umutegetsi w’umuyahudi. Perezida Volodymr Zelensky yagize ati: “Ni gute naba umu-Nazi?” ahubwo agereranya ibitero by’Abarusiya n’iby’aba-Nazi mu ntambara ya kabiri y’isi.

Perezida Putin kenshi yashinje Ukraine kwigarurirwa n’abahezanguni, kuva uwahoze ari perezida ushyigikiwe n’Uburusiya, Viktor Yanukovych, yavanwa ku butegetsi mu 2014 nyuma y’imyigaragambyo yamaze amezi yamagana ubutegetsi bwe.

Uburusiya bwahise bwihimura maze butera amajyepfo bufata umwigimbakirwa wa Crimea kandi bushyigikira inyeshyamba mu burasirazuba, zitangira kurwanya leta mu ntambara imaze kugwamo abantu bagera ku 14,000.

Mu mpera za 2021 Putin yatangiye kohereza ingabo ku mipaka y’igihugu cye na Ukraine. Maze muri iki cyumweru arenga ku masezerano y’amahoro ya 2015 atangaza ko uduce two mu burasirazuba tugenzurwa n’inyeshyamba ari leta bemera ko zigenga.

Uburusiya kuva cyera bwarwanyije ko Ukraine yinjira mu muryango w’Ubumwe bw’Uburayi hamwe no mu ishyirahamwe ryo gutabarana rya NATO/OTAN. Atangaza ibitero by’Uburusiya, Putin yashinje NATO kugariza “amateka yacu n’imbere hazaza hacu nk’igihugu.”

Uburusiya buzagarukira he?

Uburusiya bwanze kwemera niba bushaka gukuraho ubutegetsi bwatowe muri Ukraine, nubwo buvuga ko mu by’ukuri Ukraine ikwiye “kubohorwa, igakurwamo aba-Nazi”. Putin yavuze ibyo kugeza mu nkiko “abakoze ibyaha byinshi byo kumena amaraso y’abasivile”.

Biraboneka neza ko igitero cyavuye mu majyaruguru muri Bielorussie hamwe no gufata ikibuga cy’indege kiri hafi ya Kyiv nta gushidikanya umurwa mukuru uri mu mboni ze.

Mu minsi yabanjirije ibitero, ubwo abasirikare bagera ku 200,000 bari hfi ya Ukraine ku mipaka, yari yibanze cyane ku burasirazuba.

Mu kwemera nk’ibihugu byigenga ibice byafashwe n’inyeshyamba bya Donetsk na Luhansk, byari ukwemeza ko aho hantu hatakiri muri Ukraine. Maze ahishura ko ashyigikiye imigambi yabo yo kwagura ubutaka bwabo imbere muri Ukraine. Izo repubulika zifite igice kitageze neza kuri 1/3 cy’ubuso bwose bw’uturere twa Donetsk na Luhansk ubwatwo.

Ni ubuhe bukana ibi bitero bifite k’Uburayi?

Ibi ni ibihe biteye ubwoba ku baturage ba Ukraine kandi binakomeye ku batuye uwo mugabane wose, kubona igihugu gikomeye gitera igihugu gituranyi bwa mbere kuva intambara ya kabiri y’isi irangiye.

Abasirikare n’abasivile babarirwa muri za mirongo bamaze gupfa kugeza ubu mucyo Ubudage bwise “Intambara ya Putin”. Perezida Emmanuel Macron yavuze ko ibi ari ikorosi rikomeye mu mateka y’Uburayi.

Abategetsi batandukanye b’Iburayi kuri bo ibitero by’Uburusiya byazanye ibihe bibi cyane mu Burayi kuva mu myaka ya 1940.

Ku miryango y’abasirikare bo ku mpande zombi iyi ni iminsi mibi. Ukraine yari imaze imyaka umunani ihanganye n’inyeshyamba zishyigikiwe n’Uburusiya. Ubu igisirikare cyasabye abavuye ku rugerero bose bari hagati y’imyaka 18 na 60 kugaruka. Mark Milley umutegetsi mukuru mu ngabo za Amerika yavuze ko ingano y’abasirikare b’Uburusiya yaba “iteye ubwoba” bageze mu mijyi ya Ukraine.

Ibi bitero byahise bigira ingaruka ku bihugu byinshi bituranye na Ukraine n’Uburusiya. Latvia, Pologne na Moldova bivuga ko biri kwitegura kwakira impunzi nyinshi. Ibihe bidasanzwe byatangajwe muri Lithuania na Moldova, aho ibihumbi by’abagore n’abana bamaze guhungira.

Iyi ntabwo ari intambara n’abaturage b’Uburusiya batari biteze, mu gihe inteko ishingamategeko yemezaga ibi bitero.

Ni iki ibihugu by’iburengerazuba byakora?

Indege z’intambara za NATO zateguwe ariko iri shyirahamwe ryasobanuye ko nta mugambi rifite wo kohereza abasirikare muri Ukraine ubwaryo. Ahubwo ryemeye gutanga abajyanama, ibikoresho hamwe n’ibitaro byo ku rugamba. Hagati aho, abasirikare 5,000 ba NATO boherejwe muri Estonia, Latvia na Lithuania no muri Pologne. Abandi 4,000 bashobora koherezwa muri Romania, Bulgaria, Hungary na Slovakia.

Ahubwo iburengerazuba bari kwibasira ubukungu bw’Uburusiya, inganda n’abantu ku giti cyabo.

• Ubumwe bw’Uburayi (EU) bwasezeranyije kuvana Uburusiya ku masoko y’imari ku isi no kubuza inganda zaho kugera ku ikoranabuhanga rigezweho. EU yari yamaze gufatira ibihano abagize inteko ishingamategeko y’Uburusiya bagera kuri 351
• Ubudage bwahagaritse kwemeza itangira ry’umuyoboro wa gas uzwi nka Nord Stream 2, ishoramari rinini ry’Uburusiya na kompanyi zimwe z’Iburayi
• Amerika ivuga ko Uburusiya buvanwa ku kugera mu bigo n’ibijyanye n’imari byose by’iburengerazuba, kandi ikagambirira abantu “bakomeye” mu Burusiya
• Ubwongereza bwavuze ko banki zose zikomeye z’Uburusiya imari yazo ifatirwa, n’abantu 100 n’ibigo bikibasirwa, n’indege za Aeroflot, kompanyi ya leta y’Uburusiya, zikabuzwa kugwa mu Bwongereza

Ukraine yasabye inshuti zayo guhagarika kugura gas n’ibitoro by’Uburusiya. Naho leta za Estonia, Latvia na Lithuania zasabye umuryango mpuzamahanga wose kuvana Uburusiya mu buryo mpuzamahanga bw’imikorere yo kwishyurana hagati ya za banki bwa Swift. Ibyagira ingaruka mbi no ku bukungu bwa Amerika n’Uburayi.

Umujyi wa St Petersburg uyu mwaka ntabwo uzaba ucyakiriye umukino wanyuma wa Champions League kubera impamvu z’umutekano. Impuzamashyirahamwe y’umupira w’amaguru Iburayi yavuze ko ifata izindi ngamba.

Putin arashaka iki?

Perezida Putin impamvu yindi ku bitero kuri Ukraine yavuze ni ukwaguka kwa NATO igana iburasirazuba. Mbere yavuze ko ari nkaho Uburusiya “butagifite aho guhungira – batekereza ko tuzicara tukarebera?”

Ukraine irifuza kwinjira muri NATO nubwo itarabisaba, gusa visi minisitiri w’ububanyi n’amahanga w’Uburusiya Sergei Ryabkov yavuze ko: “kuri twe ni itegeko ko Ukraine itagomba kandi itazigera iba muri NATO.”

Umwaka ushize Putin yanditse inkuru ndende asobanura abarusiya n’abanya-Ukraine “nk’igihugu kimwe”. Avuga ko Ukraine yo muri iki gihe yashinzwe n’abakomunisti b’Abarusiya ariko ubu itegekwa n’ibikinisho by’iburasirazuba.

Putin yavuze kandi ko niba Ukraine igiye muri NATO, iryo shyirahamwe rizagerageza kwisubiza Crimea.

Ariko Uburusiya ntabwo bureba kuri Ukraine gusa. Burasaba ko NATO isubira ku mipaka yayo yo mu 1997.

Putin arashaka ko ingabo za NATO n’ibikorwa byayo bya gisirikare bivanwa mu bihugu byayinjiyemo kuva mu 1997 kandi ntiyohereze “ibisasu hafi y’umupaka w’Uburusiya”. Ibyo bivuze ibihugu byo hagati, n’iburasirazuba bw’Iburayi hamwe na leta za Estonia, Latvia na Lithuania

Kuri Putin, mu 1990 NATO yizeje ko itazagukaho “na centimetero imwe igana iburasirazuba” ariko yaranze irabikora.

Aho ni mbere yo gusenyuka kwa leta zunze ubumwe z’Abasoviyeti, ubwo avuga ko ibyo byizejwe perezida wabo Mikhail Gorbachev hashingiwe ku burasirazuba bw’Ubudage mu kwifuza ko Ubudage bwongera kuba bumwe.

Mikhail Gorbachev nyuma yavuze ko “ingingo yo kwaguka kwa NATO itigeze iganirwaho” icyo gihe.

NATO ni iki yavuze?

Iri shyirahamwe ryo gutabarana kw’ibihugu rifunguriye ibihugu bibishaka, hamwe n’ibihugu 30 birigize, rivuga ko ntacyo rizahindura.

Ukraine ntirinjira muri iryo shyirahamwe kandi umukuru w’Ubudage aheruka kuvuga ko nta mugambi wa vuba ko izajyamo byihuse.

Haba hari inzira isigaye ya diplomasi?

Ubu ni nkaho ntayo, ariko iyashoboka yose byasaba ko yiga ku ntambara iri kuba no kubuza ikoreshwa ry’intwaro runaka.

Amerika yari yasabye gutangiza ibiganiro ku kubuza ikoreshwa rya misile ziraswa ku ntera runaka hamwe n’amasezerano mashya kuri misile ziraswa kure. Uburusiya bwifuzaga ko intwaro kirimbuzi zose za Amerika zitagomba kuvanwa ku butaka bwayo.

Uburusiya bwari bwashyimye gahunda yo “gushyira mu mucyo” kugezurana kw’ahantu habitswe za misile – habiri mu Burusiya, na habiri muri Romania na Pologne.