Igikombe c’isi Qatar 2022: Twigire kuri kahise ibishobora gushika

 Ni iki ibikombe vy’isi vy’imbere y’aha bishobora kutwigisha ku vyo twokwitega muri  Qatar?

Igikombe c’uno mwaka coba kigoye? Ibihugu vyaronse itike yo kuja muri iri higanwa bibanje gukina urukino rwa play-off vyohebuzwa ubu nyene? Ubwo gukinira muri Asia vyoba bizokworohera ibihugu bimwe bimwe?

Turaraba ibi vyose – hamwe n’ibindi vyinshi – kugira turabe ibihugu bishobora guhabwa amahirwe muri kino gikombe c’isi yose c’uno mwaka.

Hamaze kuba amahiganwa atandatu ahuriyemwo igitigiri nk’iki c’ibihugu 32 bigabuwe mu mirwi umunani umwe umwe ufise ibihugu bine bine , akaba ari ayo mahiganwa atandatu aduha inkino 384 tugiye kwihweza kugira turabe niba hari ibija biragaruka.

Mu mwihwezo ukurikira, tugiye kurabiha hamwe aya mahiganwa atandatu – kuva mu 1998 gushika 2018 – – kiretse bibaye ngombwa ko tuja hanze y’aho.

Aho ritunganirizwa hagira ingaruka nyabaki ku mirwi ifata ingendo? 

Mu mahiganwa atatu aheruka kubera i Bulaya, mu bibanza 16 vyo muri ca gice co gukuranamwo (canke igice c’umunani gishira ica nyuma), imigwi y’i Buraya yafashemwo 10.

Iyo ihiganwa ribereye hanze y’Ubulaya, iki gitigiri caramanuka nko gushika ku ndwi.

Imirwi yo muri Amerika y’Ubumanuko niyo ica ihatomborera, mu gihe igitigiri c’imigwi ya Asia ishike muri ico gice yigwiza na kabiri iyo ihiganwa ribereye hanze y’Ubulaya.

Hoba hari isano hagati y’ingene imirwi yagiye ironka itike n’uko yitwara muri iryo higanwa?

Ibikombe bitanu ku mahiganwa atandaatu aheruka vyatwahanywe n’ibihugu vy’i Buraya – kandi uretse Ubufaransa bwatsinze iri higanwa mu 1998 buronse itike kubera ari bwo bwari bwaryakiriye, ibindi vyose vyari vyitwaye neza mu mahiganwa yo kurondera itike.

Ibindi bihugu bine vyatahukanye iki gikombe – Ubutaliyano mu 2006, Espagne mu 2010, Ubudagi mu 2014 be n’Ubufaransa mu 2018 – wasanga birangije bidatsinzwe na rimwe canke ugasanga bitsinzwe nka rimwe gusa mu nkino cumi zo kurondera itike. Urugero rw’izi nstinzi (mu gihe iyo banganije biharurwa nk’inusu y’intsinzi) rwari ku 80% no kurenga.

Mu nkino zo kurondera itike mw’ihiganwa ry’uno mwaka, ibihugu vyinshi vya Bulaya vyarashitse kuri uru rugero: Danemark (95%), Ubwongereza n’Ubudagi (90%), Serbia n’Ububirigi (87.5%), Espagne, Ubuswisi n’Ubufaransa ( 81.3%) hanyuma Croatia n’Ubuholande ( 80%).

Iri higanwa rizoba rifise ubukomezi bungana gute ufatiye ku bibanza ibihugu bifise kw’isi ugereranije n’amahiganwa y’imbere y’aha?

Twisunze urutonde rwa FIFA rw’ingene ibihugu bikurikirana kw’isi, turashobora kubona ingene iri higanwa rishobora kuzoba rikomeye.  Raba ubutandukane bw’ingene ibi bihugu 32 bihagaze kuri buri higanwa: 

Kubera amategeko ya FIFA agena igitigiri c’imirwi iva kuri buri mugabane, hari ibihugu bitari muri iri higanwa kandi ku rutonde rwa FIFA biri imbere ya bimwe mu vyaronse itike. 

Ibihugu bikomeye bitazokwitabira iri higanwa ry’uno mwaka ni Ubutaliyano – buza mu kibanza ca gatandatu – ariko  Colombia (17), Peru (23), Suède (25), Ukraine (27), Chili (29) na Nigeria (32) vyari kuba vyararonse itike iyaba urutonde rw’isi ari rwo rwakurikizwa mu kugena abaryitabira hatarabwe aho igihugu giherereye.

Mu gihe ibihugu indwi vyo ku rugero rwo hasi biri muri rino higanwa bishobora kuboneka ko ari vyinshi, uravye ahubwo ni igitigiri gito kuva iri higanwa ritanguye guhuriramwo ibihugu 32. Hari amahiganwa yagiye yitabirwa n’ibihugu bishika 11 biri inyuma ya 32 vya mbere.   

Rero iki gihe ni ihiganwa rizoba rikomeye cane.

Hanyuma turavye ingene ibihugu bihagaze, biboneka ko Ubwongereza na Pays de Galles (Wales) biri mu murwi utoroshe na gato muri  Qatar – ni wo murwi wonyene uhuriyemwo imirwi iri muri 20 ya mbere dufatiye kuri uru rutonde rwo ku wa 30 z’ukwa cumi.

Imirwi yo mu gikombe c’isi yose ca 2022  n’ingene ibihugu bihagaze kw’isi (Gushika ku wa 30 z’ukwa cumi. )

Ibihugu vyaronkeye itike muri play-off bivyifatamwo gute mu bisanzwe ?

Pays de Galles mu mahiganwa ya mbere yitabiriye mu myaka 64, yamye ironka itike ibanje gukina play-offs  kumwe na Pologne hamwe na Portugal.

Ukibibona ubwa mbere, womenga vyaciye mu canzo – ariko akahise ka vuba kerekana ko ibihugu bironka itike muri iyo nzira bikora ibintu bikomeye.

Tugereranije imirwi ya Bulaya, 67% y’ibihugu bironka itike biciye muri play-offs  birashika mu gice co gukuranamwo, ugereranije na 57% gusa biba vyaronse itike mu buryo bworoshe.

Inkino zibiri za nyuma (finales) z’amahiganwa atandatu aheruka zahuje ibihugu vya Bulaya vyaronse itike mu ma play-offs – ibi bikaba ari Ubudagi mu 2002 hamwe na Croatia mu 2018. Vyongeye, Croatia (1998) na Turukiya (2002) vyashitse mu gice ca kabiri gishira ica nyuma (demi-finales) , mu gihe ibindi bihugu bitatu navyo vyashitse mu gice ca kane gishira ica nyuma (quart de finales). 

Kubera iki imirwi iba isanzwe ifise igikombe itoroherwa?

Kuva mu myaka ya 1990, mu bihugu biba bifise igikombe, ikimaze gutsinda muri gice c’inkino zo gukuranamwo (knockout) ni kimwe gusa, iki naco ni Ubudagi igihe butsinda Ghana mu 2006.

Mu vy’ukuri, kuva mu 1962, nta gihugu kirashobora kugumana igikombe, mu gihe mu mahiganwa 14  kuva ico gihe, ibihugu bibiri ari vyo  vyonyene bimaze kugera mu gice ca kane gishira ica nyuma.  

Ibihugu biba bifise igikombe kenshi bitangura kugira ingorane ku rukino rwa mbere.

Mu mahiganwa 12 kuva Ubwongereza butsinze urukino rwa mbere aho bwahura na Roumanie mu 1970, ibihugu bitatu vyonyene biba bifise igikombe ni vyo bimaze gutsinda urukino rwa mbere. Mbere bine muri bitanu biba bifise igikombe nta n’uko vyavuye mu nkino zo mu mirwi (phase des groupes).

Kubera iki? Imyaka ine ni igihe kirekire mu mupira w’amaguru. Uravye, usanga 50% vy’abakinyi batsindiye ico gikombe ari bo batangura urukino rwa mbere rwo mu mirwi mw’ihiganrwa rikurikira.

Igihe Ubutaliyano bukina urukino rwa mbere bukanganya na Paraguay mu 2010, bwakinishije batatu gusa mu bari batsindiye igikombe ca 2006.

Incuro zingahe umurwi wo mu rwego rwo hasi ukora ibitangaza?

Nimba witeze ko imirwi ibiri ya mbere ari iyizoba ihagaze neza ku rutonde mpuzamakungu muri buri murwi, uzotangara.

Ni ibisanzwe ko bitandatu muri 16 bikina inkino zo gukuranamwo usanga bigira gatatu na kane mu mirwi yavyo. Ni urugero rutangaje rwa 32%. Muri ano mahiganwa atandatu nyene, imirwi yo hasi yatsinze inkino zo gukuranamwo ku rugero rwa 34%.

Inkino zitatu muri zine zababaje ni izatsinzwe n’ibihugu vyakiriye amahiganwa – ku ncuro zibiri biciye ku ma penalties, incuro imwe nayo biciye ku gitsindo c’inzahabu.

Uko bizogenda kwose mu ndwi zitanu ziri imbere, hashobora kuba ibintu bizobabaza abantu, bitangaza, eka ibintu bizoteza impari.